- Scottish independence would entail significant economic risk. Scotland’s budget deficit is currently over three times higher than the UK average as a % of GDP.
- North Sea oil and gas revenue expectations have plunged. Expected revenues of £6.8 to 7.9bn this year have fallen to just £0.5 to 2.8bn.
- Two thirds of Scotland’s exports go to the rest of the UK but just 15% go to other EU countries, further questioning the economic rationale behind Scottish independence.
- Euro membership would expose Scotland to the risk of more asymmetric economic shocks, and the European Central Bank would be less capable of responding to shocks compared to the Bank of England.
The EU referendum has exposed wide divisions across nations of the UK. While England voted by a margin of 6 percentage points to leave the EU, Scotland overwhelming supported remaining within the EU. In response, Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon said that a second referendum on Scottish independence is “on the table” and “highly likely”. This economic bulletin seeks to examine the economic backdrop to the prospect of a second referendum, and whether this backdrop would influence the result of a referendum if it were held over the next few years.
Image: Creative Commons/Scottish Government
- The Guardian: Scotland risks becoming Greece without the sun, says thinktank
- The Times: Independence would look ‘like Greece without the sun’
- Daily Telegraph: Independent Scotland in the euro ‘like Greece without the sun’, Nicola Sturgeon warned
- ITV News: Independence over EU membership would make Scotland ‘Greece without the sun’, think tank warns
- Politico Europe: Independence would make Scotland ‘Greece without the sun’
- Independent: Independent Scotland in Europe ‘like Greece without the sun’, Nicola Sturgeon warned
- Daily Express: Scotland will be ‘Greece without the sun’ in EU alone: Sturgeon warned over shameless bid
- Herald Scotland: Independent Scotland ‘could be a Greece without the sun’
- Energy Voice: Think tank report warns of ‘Economic Risk’ of Scottish independence
- STV News: Independence could turn Scotland into ‘ Greece without the sun’
- The Scotsman: Second Indyref should not be blocked, says Ruth Davidson
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