Public debate on immigration, and government policy, has long been focused on the number of new arrivals. Much less attention has been paid to the longer-term impact.
The Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch MP, recently raised concerns about the hundreds of thousands of migrants who will soon be eligible to apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR).
New CPS research shows that between January 2021 and June 2024, over 2 million visas were issued to migrants who will, after five years, be eligible to apply for ILR in the UK. As best we can determine, there has been no attempt by the Government to estimate how many will apply for long-term residency, or the fiscal impact of their doing so.
‘Here to Stay?’, written by CPS Research Director Karl Williams, attempts to fill this gap, by making a range of estimates about how many migrants could be granted ILR based on past trends.
Our central projection suggests 801,000 migrants could apply for ILR. However, taking into account recent changes in the migration mix and behaviour post-pandemic, this could be as high as 1.24 million.
Many of these migrants, as outlined in previous CPS reports, are not ‘the best and brightest’, as was promised, but either low-paid workers (particularly in the care sector) or dependants who may or may not be working. Those individuals are likely to represent a long-term burden on the country’s finances, rather than being net contributors.
Under the assumption of 801,000 people obtaining ILR and using the OBR’s estimates for migrant earnings, the CPS’s central estimate is that the lifetime net fiscal cost to the state of leaving ILR conditionality unchanged would be £234 billion – equivalent to a bill of £8,200 for every UK household, spread across several decades.
However, given the widely acknowledged flaws in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) data underpinning the OBR’s figures, and the changing nature of migration post-Brexit, the true figure could be far higher – since by necessity, the CPS’s analysis excludes many potential costs, such as those of extreme old age.
Even though this sum will be over the long term, it is still a significant burden on the British taxpayer.
The report calls for the government to pause granting of ILR, or at least to impose stricter conditionality, while it urgently investigates and addresses this situation – given that January 1, 2026 is the fifth anniversary of the new migration system coming into force, and hence the point at which ILR applications will begin to be lodged.
It urges ministers to develop a rigorous set of criteria for granting ILR to future migrants to the UK, thereby fixing some of the errors made when the new visa system was established under the previous government.
A data specialist with a background in energy and seaborne trade research in the City, his work at the CPS has focused on political economy, immigration policy and the intellectual foundations of free market conservatism - as well as content of the Thatcher Fellowship programme.
