- A UK stock market fall of 20% does not correlate with an impending recession. The FTSE 100 share price has historically been poor at predicting recessions.
- The Carson model focusing on construction, manufacturing and unemployment is more accurate. All of these indicators in the UK remain robust.
- Housing starts fell by 35% and 60% before the two previous recessions, but have increased by 23% in the last year.
- But exports are still lagging. Government’s £1 trillion target by 2020 is set to be achieved 14 years late.
- IMF and Eurochambers have also highlighted global risks. The OBR is likely to downgrade underlying forecasts at Budget 2016.
