Are the doommongers right about the UK economy?

  • A UK stock market fall of 20% does not correlate with an impending recession. The FTSE 100 share price has historically been poor at predicting recessions.
  • The Carson model focusing on construction, manufacturing and unemployment is more accurate. All of these indicators in the UK remain robust.
  • Housing starts fell by 35% and 60% before the two previous recessions, but have increased by 23% in the last year.
  • But exports are still lagging. Government’s £1 trillion target by 2020 is set to be achieved 14 years late.
  • IMF and Eurochambers have also highlighted global risks. The OBR is likely to downgrade underlying forecasts at Budget 2016.

Daniel Mahoney, Tim Knox - Saturday, 12th March, 2016