- In July, the Conservatives suffered one of the worst election defeats in their history.
- A new report based on polling of 4,000 voters and immersive research in the marginal seats of Don Valley, Guildford and Swindon shows that it was the Conservatives’ concrete failures on the economy, migration and the NHS that doomed the party, not being ‘too left-wing’ or ‘too right-wing’.
- The report, by opinion research expert James Frayne, argues that there is a route back to power for the Conservatives – but it involves returning to the common ground of British politics, rather than the centre ground as defined in Westminster.
- In particular, those who left the Conservatives in 2024 – in whatever direction – share the same robust views on crime, family, welfare and border control as those who remained.
- However, Tory supporters are also highly supportive of the NHS, suspicious of the wealthy and big business, and generally resistant to many of the reforms that a future Conservative Government might want or need to impose
How can the Conservative Party recover from electoral catastrophe? A new report from the Centre for Policy Studies, built around an extensive programme of quantitative and qualitative research led by James Frayne, argues that the party needs to return to the ‘common ground’ first identified by Margaret Thatcher and Keith Joseph in the 1970s.
‘Common Ground Conservatism‘, written by Frayne, is built on an in-depth programme of pre-election polling, as well as focus groups and immersive research in three key electoral battlegrounds – Guildford, Swindon, and the Don Valley.
The report finds that there is still a viable electoral coalition available to the Conservatives, if the party can overcome the stigma from its failures in government – in particular over the economy, the NHS and migration, and the perception that it only cared about the rich.
Strikingly, those who left the party in 2024 and those who stayed with it display a remarkable overlap in values – especially when it comes to policies such as immigration, law and order, welfare and the family. Frayne argues that there is no tension on these issues between ‘tacking left’ and ‘tacking right’ – indeed, that voters do not see these issues in those terms at all.
However, the report also warns that it will be much harder to persuade Tory voters to support many of the reforms that the country needs. In particular, potential Conservative supporters are – like other voters – hugely attached to the NHS, and hugely nervous about anything that might harm it, including lowering taxes. They are also hostile towards the wealthy and big business, although strongly supportive of small, local businesses.
Tory voters also tended to be supportive of Net Zero, and not to be aware of many of the debates around ‘woke ideology’ that transfix those in Westminster: their focus is firmly on day-to-day concerns, which they expect politicians to prioritise.
Key findings from the polling include:
- Among Tory defectors, the most popular explanation for why they were not voting Tory was that the party had allowed immigration to reach record levels
- The Tories having become too right-wing, or too left-wing, were the least popular explanations of all those put forward
- Only 18% of 2019 Tories said they could never vote for the Tories again, and 52% of the electorate were open to the prospect in theory
- The top policy priorities among both Tory voters and the general public were to reduce NHS waiting lists, make it easier to get GP appointments, and stop so many small boats arriving
- The biggest differences between Tory and Labour voters were over immigration, welfare and crime and justice, on which the overwhelming majority of potential Tory voters took a far firmer line
- There was also extremely strong support among Tory voters for apprenticeships, small businesses and the abolition of inheritance tax
James Frayne, report author, said:
‘Voters that hated the Tories six months ago now hate Labour too. They’re fed up with the endless cycle of ludicrously ambitious promises and policy failure. The best thing Kemi Badenoch can do is dial down the pledges, and be honest that politicians don’t have all the answers.
‘She can be confident that the public are in the same space as the Conservatives on a range of policies from reducing migration to cutting crime and welfare bills – although voters have been burned by the Tories on these issues before. But on taxes and the role of the state, voters need to hear things said in a different way – and that means a giant dose of candour.’
Robert Colvile, Director of the Centre for Policy Studies, said:
‘Our report shows that the origins of the Conservatives’ shattering election defeat lie in the party’s failure to deliver on its promises – in particular, on the three areas about which voters cared the most. Despite this, there is a narrow path back to power for the Conservatives. But there is no point in getting back into power unless you do the right things for the country once you are in there.
‘This project shows that the Conservatives and their potential supporters are on the same page when it comes to many issues, in particular those involving migration, crime or welfare. But there is still a huge effort needed to persuade the public when it comes to other traditional centre-right priorities – such as the need for lower taxes, a smaller state, and greater support for enterprise.’
NOTES TO EDITORS
- ‘Common Ground Conservatism’ is available to download under embargo here.
- James Frayne is a Founding Partner at Public First.
- For further information and media requests, please contact Josh Coupland, on 07912485655 or [email protected]
- The Centre for Policy Studies is one of the oldest and most influential think tanks in Westminster. With a focus on taxation, economic growth, business, welfare, education, housing and green growth, its goal is to develop policies that widen enterprise, ownership and opportunity.
Date Added: Tuesday 3rd December 2024
